Summary

Cambodia's housing market in 2026 is best described as selective rather than recovering. The National Bank of Cambodia's residential price index was down 3.67% year on year in January 2026, following a 3.8% decline across 2025, with Phnom Penh — the market that anchors national sentiment — down 4.52%. Headline weakness, however, conceals a widening split between segments and locations. Demand is not returning everywhere; it is concentrating.

Three nodes stand out.

First, landed housing and borey developments.** While the condominium segment absorbs a large pipeline, borey projects — the gated landed schemes that dominate Cambodian middle-class aspiration — remain the most active part of the market, supported by domestic buyers and mortgage financing. Good Value Property's Q1 2026 pulse puts landed stock above 181,000 units, a base far larger than the condo universe and one that turns over steadily rather than in speculative waves.

Second, the southern corridor around Techo International Airport.** The airport opened in September 2025 and has become the clearest infrastructure signal in Cambodian real estate. Launch activity along the southern and airport corridor is rising, supported by Ring Road 3 and the industrial and logistics build-out that follows transport capacity. This is the geography where new supply and new demand are meeting rather than passing each other.

Third, the mid-market condo tier.** Knight Frank's H2 2025 highlights put completed Phnom Penh condominium stock at roughly 63,334 units, up 9.6% year on year, with vacancy in the mid-teens in some compilations. Good Value's Q1 2026 count puts supply above 76,000 units across more than 150 projects, split roughly 61% mid-range, 26% affordable and 13% high-end. The pressure is concentrated at the top: luxury oversupply persists, while the mid-market is tighter. Late-2025 commentary noted a partial recovery in some high-end Phnom Penh condos, with pricing moving back above roughly US$2,800 per square metre in Q4, but this is a narrow signal, not a market-wide turn.

The drivers behind this concentration are employment, infrastructure and rental economics. Rental yields are frequently cited in the 6–8% range by brokerages — a range that only holds in locations where tenants actually work and where supply is not already saturated. Tourism, running at roughly 6.7–7.1 million arrivals, and the Techo and Siem Reap–Angkor airport pair provide a demand floor for hospitality-linked and serviced product.

The risks are equally concentrated. Rumavi's oversupply review notes that launches fell from about 8,200 units in 2019 toward roughly 3,800 in 2025, against absorption of about 2,800–3,000 units a year — a market that is correcting through the supply side rather than through price collapse. Sihanoukville is the cautionary case: its Chinese workforce fell from roughly 22,000 in 2019 to about 2,000, leaving hundreds of stalled coastal projects. The speculative coast is not the recovery story, and treating it as one is the single most common error in reading this market.

ERA Cambodia frames 2026 as normalisation rather than recession. That framing is consistent with the data: a market finding a lower, more domestic, more employment-linked equilibrium.

What this means for Cambodia

For buyers and investors comparing districts, the practical implication is that "Cambodia" is no longer a single market to be assessed with a single price trend. The national index tells you what happened to the average; it does not tell you where demand is going.

The southern corridor around Techo International Airport is the clearest example of infrastructure pulling demand forward. Airport capacity, Ring Road 3 and industrial-logistics investment create employment nodes, and employment nodes create rental demand. For investors weighing rental yield, this is where the 6–8% figures cited by brokerages are most defensible — because they rest on tenants with jobs rather than on expectations of capital appreciation.

Landed housing tells a different but complementary story. Borey schemes are driven by domestic middle-class buyers and financing availability, which makes them less exposed to foreign demand shocks than the condo tier. For buyers whose horizon is owner-occupation or long-hold rental, the landed segment offers a demand base that does not depend on cross-border sentiment.

The condo tier requires the most discrimination. With supply above 76,000 units and a pipeline skewed to mid-range product, the risk is not uniform: high-end stock faces the oversupply that Knight Frank and others have flagged, while mid-market and affordable segments are comparatively tighter. A buyer comparing two Phnom Penh condos at similar prices may be comparing two very different supply-demand positions.

Sihanoukville should be read as a separate market with its own cycle. The collapse in its expatriate workforce and the volume of stalled projects mean that coastal speculative product is not participating in the 2026 normalisation. Any comparison between a Phnom Penh mid-market unit and a Sihanoukville coastal unit should treat them as unrelated assets.

Finally, the supply-side correction is itself a signal. Launches falling toward 3,800 units against absorption of 2,800–3,000 means the market is working through its excess rather than adding to it. That is the precondition for the selective growth IQI describes — but it is selective, and it rewards location analysis over market-level bets.

What to do next

  • Anchor your search to employment and infrastructure nodes. Prioritise the southern Phnom Penh corridor around Techo International Airport and Ring Road 3, and established borey catchments with domestic buyer depth. Treat proximity to actual jobs as the primary filter.
  • Segment before you compare. Separate landed, mid-market condo, high-end condo and coastal product. Do not apply a single yield or price assumption across them; the supply-demand positions differ materially.
  • Stress-test the yield. Brokerage-cited 6–8% rental yields should be verified against local vacancy, competing supply within the same project tier, and realistic tenant profiles rather than headline asking rents.
  • Check the pipeline, not just the project. With condo supply above 76,000 units across 150-plus projects, confirm what else is completing nearby before committing. Mid-range and affordable tiers are tighter than high-end.
  • Treat Sihanoukville as a distinct, higher-risk market. Stalled projects and a shrunken expatriate workforce mean coastal speculative stock is not part of the 2026 normalisation story.
  • Use the supply correction as context, not as a trigger. Falling launches support stabilisation over time, but they do not guarantee price recovery in any specific building or district.