Summary

Vietnam’s two primary condo markets cooled from the double-digit sprint of 2024–2025 into a supply-heavy, growth-moderating mid-2026. That is the useful Asia-Pacific frame — not a rebound slogan.

Global Property Guide’s August 2026 Vietnam residential analysis, citing CBRE Vietnam, reports Hanoi primary new-sale apartments around VND 95 million per sqm in Q2 2026 — about 12% quarter on quarter and about 21% year on year. Hanoi secondary averages fell close to 3% on the quarter to around VND 60 million per sqm, the first quarterly secondary decline since late 2022 in that read. Across enlarged Ho Chi Minh City (post-2025 provincial mergers), CBRE-cited primary averages sit near VND 76 million per sqm in Q2 2026 (+8% QoQ, +16% YoY); pre-merger-city primary prints from JLL sit higher near VND 98 million per sqm**. Composition matters: most new HCMC supply sits outside the historic core, so enlarged-metro averages are not the same as District 1 / Thu Thiem pricing.

Realtique’s 30 July 2026 CBRE-based Q2 outlook describes abundant new supply (Hanoi ~16,600 condo launches in H1 2026; enlarged HCMC ~10,800, with most from former Binh Duong) and softer absorption as mortgage costs rise — high-single to low-double-digit primary appreciation versus earlier spikes, not a crash narrative.

Do not invent yields. Do not treat a citywide average as the price of a specific unit.

What this means for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City

Outer-ring supply can lift or dilute metro averages while core liquidity behaves differently. Buyers and Pros should pair any print with the research house, the footprint (pre-merger vs enlarged HCMC), and the quarter — and treat district-level US-dollar bands on investor portals as illustrations, not an official index. Verified-only means empty public inventory until professionals and titles clear.

What to do next

  • Pair any price print with the named source, period, and footprint (especially enlarged vs pre-merger HCMC).
  • Prefer completed or clear-title stock over uncited portal folklore when advising clients.
  • Developers and Pros: join the verified path at proprkey.com/en/onboarding